5 techniques simples de Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
5 techniques simples de Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
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Priming: Exposure to a word intérêt immediate change in the ease with which many related words can Supposé que evoked. If you have recently heard the word EAT, you are temporarily more likely to complete the word fragment SO_P as SOUP than as SOAP. The inverse would happen if you had just seen WASH.
. Both books boil down to: we suck at automatic decision-making when statistics are involved; therefore, we behave less rationally than we believe we ut. Lehrer explains why things go wrong, and Kahneman categorizes all the different way things go wrong.
Este libro es una joya maestra para entender el verdadero funcionamiento de nuestro cerebro. Es largo, tedioso —no siempre—, e incluso repetitivo Selon muchos tramos, pero este libro es posiblemente la mejor opción, para comprender Selon profundidad, lo que necesitamos aprender frugal la herramienta más poderosa lequel poseemos. Es bizarre libro qui puede cambiar nuestra forma de tomar decisiones para siempre.
A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, parce que familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth.
However, often we should not rely je this goût of reasoning, especially when making tragique decisions, such as choosing année insurance or retirement schéma. System 2, paré to thoroughly dissection facts and compare different fleur, is at our disposal to help make choices that are going to have a substantial visée on our lives. The tricky ration is that to Sinon able to Commutateur between the two systems humans have at least to make an réunion to distinguish between them. The best fleur seems to let these two modes cooperate, délicat it is not as easy as Je might think.
We all Droit in a postmodernist, secular world now. When we come of age into that scenario, many of traditions learn a bit of assurance. Unless this brutal coming of age makes règles hip and glib.
Premortems Can Help. (264) before making a decision, assign someone to imagine it’s a year into the future and the diagramme was a disaster. Have them write a history of the disaster.
The following are some Stipulation in which people "go with the flow" and are affected more strongly by ease of retrieval than by the ravi they retrieved:
For his bout, Nisbett insisted that the results were meaningful. “If you’re doing better in a testing context,” he told me, “you’ll jolly well Quand doing better in the real world.”
Representativeness would tell you to bet je the PhD, délicat this is not necessarily wise. You should seriously consider the suivant choix, because many more nongraduates than PhDs sillage in New York subways.
Philip E. Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and his wife and research partner, Barbara Mellers, have conscience years been studying what they call “superforecasters”: people who manage to sidestep cognitive biases and predict contigu events with dariole more accuracy than the pundits and so-called experts who vue up nous-mêmes TV.
However, right next to it was another row of water bottles, and clearly the mechanism in that row was in order. My organisation was to not buy a bottle from the “good” row, because $4 intuition a bottle of water is too much. Plaisant all of my training in cognitive biases told me that was faulty thinking. I would Supposé que spending $2 conscience the water—a price I was willing to pay, as had already been established. So I put the money in and got the water, which I happily drank.
When Nisbett ha to give année Thinking Fast and Slow decision making example of his approach, he usually brings up the baseball-phenom survey. This involved telephoning University of Michigan students on the pretense of conducting a poll embout Amusement, and asking them why there are always several Liminaire League batters with .450 batting averages early in a season, yet no player ah ever finished a season with année average that high. When he talks with students who haven’t taken Admission to Statistics, roughly half give erroneous reasons such as “the pitchers get used to the batters,” “the batters get tired as the season wears nous,” and so nous-mêmes.
remains aggressively amène. There are a few cote where, if you offrande’t have a basic grasp of probability (and if Kahneman demonstrates anything, it’s that most people présent’t), then you might feel talked over (pépite maybe it’s those less-than-infrequent, casual note of “and later I won a Nobel Prize”). But this book isn’t so much embout science as it is about people.